Canadian home prices are going to start rising in 2020 after two-year slump: CMHC

By: Lisa Coxon on October 28, 2019

Next year will mark the start of a Canadian housing market rebound, according to the most recent Housing Market Outlook report from Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC), with sales and prices beginning to increase after recent declines.

“Housing starts are projected to stabilize in 2020 and 2021 at levels in line with long-run averages. This follows two years of declines from elevated levels in 2017. Resale activity and house prices are expected to fully recover from recent declines, supported by growth in income and population,” Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, said in the report.

By 2020, the national housing agency is predicting that the average price of a home in Canada will be anywhere from $506,200 to $531,000, up from between forecasts of $479,300 and $497,200 to finish off 2019.

CMHC is projecting that anywhere from 480,600 to 497,700 homes will be sold next year. That would be a 6% increase from CMHC’s current forecast, which predicts that by the end of 2019, between 453,000 and 467,800 homes will have been sold.

Of its projected sales for 2020, CMHC forecasts anywhere between 60,400 and 63,000 will be single-detached homes; and 133,500 to 141,400 will be multi-unit buildings. 

In the Toronto region alone, home prices are expected to rise as much as 5% in 2020, averaging anywhere between $765,300 and $898,400. That’s in part to high employment numbers, as well as immigrants and people moving here from other provinces.

Dana Senagama, CMHC manager of market analysis for Ontario, told the Toronto Star that Toronto homeowners can anticipate stable monthly mortgage payments until the end of 2021.

Senagama also told the Star that the mortgage stress test may have helped to slow the housing market, but that was only going to last for so long.

“We can play around so much with demand but the supply is so low. Our population continues to increase by 100,000 on average every year. There’s a lot of people moving into this region. They need a place to live. The supply simply cannot keep up,” she said.

The B.C. market is also expected to stabilize. CMHC expects anywhere between 74,600 and 84,400 home sales in the province next year, and anywhere between 79,800 and 90,800 in 2021.

“British Columbia will see modest recovery in price growth in 2020 from a decline in 2019, but rise to the second-highest rate of price growth after Ontario in 2021,” the report says.

Prices in the province are expected to range from $675,100 to $749,500 in 2020, and $718,400 to $801,600.

Alberta is expected to see between 52,300 and 56,900 in 2020, and taper off somewhat in 2021, with projections between 54,000 and 58,800. 

The average home price in the province is projected to be between $379,700 and $383,400 next year, and between $392,700 and $397,300 in 2021.